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New Economic Ills Will Force Winner s Hand

Summary: WASHINGTON With a fresh blast of bearish news hitting just before the presidential election Tuesday s victor will be under rising pressure to put his stamp on U S economic policy well before his Jan 20 inauguration Election Guide View Interactive On Monday auto makers reported steep declines in U S car and light truck sales for October with General Motors Corp reporting a 45 drop compared with the number of vehicles sold a year ago Ford Motor Co was down 30 and even onc　e mighty Toyota Motor Corp was off by 23 A senior GM executive said the company s results when adjusted for population changes represented the worst month in the post World War II era The auto industry s woes contributed to another drop in overall factory output with the Institute for Supply Management reporting its manufacturing activity index fell to a 26 year low in October Meanwhile troubled electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc said it was closing one　 fifth of its stores We re dealing with a situation that could develop into another Great Depression if not handled properly says Daniel DiMicco chief executive of Charlotte N C based steelmaker Nucor Corp who spent an hour in line on Friday waiting to cast an early vote Few economists predict the world is in for a repeat of the 1930s But the deepening problems rising joblessness and home foreclosures falling consumer spending and tight credit are prompting calls from businesses and Congress for quick action by the next president to clarify and begin working on his economic agenda Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd D Conn says the president elect should start by picking his Treasury secretary and economic team within days With Congress planning a session this month to push through a second economic stimulus package and discuss remaking the nation s financial system lawmakers will look for direction from the future president Mr Dodd said he will bring the next White House team into the regulatory talks Associated Press Getty Images CLOSING ARGUMENTS Sen John McCain left and rival Sen Barack Obama campaigned in Florida Monday as the economic outlook worsened just before the election Twenty seven electoral votes are at stake in the state Both campaigns declined to comment on any specific post election plans However Democratic Sen Barack Obama would likely come under pressure to assure investors that he won t increase income taxes on the wealthy during a recession as he hinted during the campaign or boost capital gains taxes during a market slump For Republican Sen John McCain one　 challenge would be explaining how he d work with a Democratic Congress after a bitter presidential battle The central issue now says McCain economic adviser Douglas Holtz Eakin is the reality that so many Americans believe that the institutions they rely on banks Wall Street Washington have failed them Those failures are the source of the lack of confidence Three economic challenges are apt to dominate the early days of the new presidency mending the economy reshaping the battered financial industry and crafting a policy for China America s biggest creditor and an economic rival The slumping economy is the top issue Many economists forecast that the U S will fall into its deepest recession since the early 1980s with some predicting unemployment above 8 by 2010 up from 6 1 today Former Reagan economist Martin Feldstein a McCain adviser recently endorsed a stimulus plan of as much as $300 billion Sen Charles Schumer the New York Democrat who is chairman of the Joint Economic Committee says an Obama win would mean the Democratic Congress will take up a small stimulus package in a lame duck session soon and a bigger one　 in January after inauguration Even if Sen McCain were to win Sen Schumer says expected Democratic gains in Congress will help the party leadership push through a package in November The last stimulus package of $168 billion including about $105 billion in rebate checks didn t do much to help The money boosted spending in the second quarter of 2008 but not beyond as the pain of $4 a gallon gasoline offset the extra cash consumers received from the government Now stimulus advocates mainly Democrats are focusing on infrastructure projects extension of unemployment insurance benefits and increases in food stamp payments State and local governments would also be targeted Twenty seven states have announced budget shortfalls for fiscal year 2009 which began in July totaling $26 billion according to Moody s Economy com an economic consulting firm Constituents are sure to weigh in with lawmakers Kokosing Construction Co in Frederickton Ohio laid off 300 of its 3 000 workers in the past year and may delay the purchase of $35 million in new equipment If Congress pays for several new dams and other projects that have been held up for lack of funding Kokosing s chief executive Brian Burgett says he could rehire many of his former employees Roughly 3 000 infrastructure projects are ready to go according to a survey by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials meaning that they could be put out to bid immediately A large stimulus package wouldn t forestall a recession though it could accelerate a recovery Moody s Economy Com analyzed the effect of a $300 billion stimulus program tilted heavily toward spending The unemployment rate in a post stimulus economy would hit 7 7 in 2010 the firm estimates compared with 8 9 without any stimulus help But a stimulus plan has drawbacks One　 is the possibility that the spending becomes permanent adding to the mounting U S debt and undermining U S finances as baby boomers begin to retire and government outlays for them rise Deeper debt also means heavier borrowing The Treasury is expected to sell about $2 trillion in debt next year about twice last year s record Goldman Sachs estimates largely because of government borrowing to prop up financial institutions While long term Treasury rates have so far have remained low at around 4 heavier borrowing could drive up general interest rates and cancel all the stimulus says Robert Litan a former Clinton administration budget official who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution a liberal leaning Washington D C think tank Another big challenge to face the president elect is deciding how big a role the government should play in the economy including picking winners and losers among companies competing for federal dollars and sharpening financial regulation Bush Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is preparing rooms at the Treasury for a transition team to assure smooth coordination Many decisions being made now will bind the next administration especially how to spend the $700 billion rescue budget While the presidential candidates talked generally about financial regulation during the campaign they didn t propose specific solutions Some lawmakers want to require more lending from banks in which the U S invested But twisting arms could be counterproductive If you bang on them to make loans they don t want to make they could lend to people who aren t qualified says Mr Litan That s how we got into this problem Sen Schumer warns hedge funds and other largely unregulated private investment firms that they too will soon face federal oversight and rules requiring them to disclose their operations even though heavily regulated banks that loaded up on risky securities have been at the heart of the financial crisis Richard Baker president of the Managed Funds Association a hedge fund trade group says that it would be difficult to meet disclosure rules because markets move so quickly that by the time information is made public it may not be relevant A big fight is sure to arise over saving firms considered too big to fail meaning that their demise could lead to a broader economic collapse The Bush administration and the Fed used that rationale to save investment bank Bear Stearns Cos mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and insurer American International Group Inc Indeed the one　 time the government let a major investment firm fail Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc credit markets around the world froze Neither Sen Obama nor Sen McCain has said in detail how he would address this issue As a nation we need to figure out who s a toobtof says Bob Atwell the chief executive of Nicolet National Bank in Green Bay Wis using his acronym for too big to fail Those firms need to be clearly defined he says and then taxed and regulated separately so they pay for what amounts to federal insurance Otherwise they would provide unfair competition for banks like Nicolet with $600 million in assets making them so small the government would be unlikely to bail them out if they fell into trouble But clarity might actually worsen the problem some economists argue because big firms would remake themselves to fit into the must be saved category The protected firms would have an incentive to take extra risks It would be like playing with Uncle Sam s credit card says Peter Wallison an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute Another battle will focus on who should be responsible for looking at the soundness of the system as a whole A plan by Treasury Secretary Paulson would give that role to the Federal Reserve Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach would amend the Fed s charter to add financial stability to its mission of promoting full employment and price stability so the Fed would focus more on identifying asset bubbles and deflating them gently before they burst A third challenge is trade with China an issue over which Sen McCain and Sen Obama have sharply disagreed Sen McCain is an avid free trader Sen Obama argues that trade WASHINGTON With a fresh blast of bearish news hitting just before the presidential election Tuesday s victor will be under rising pressure to put his stamp on U S economic policy well before his Jan 20 inauguration Election Guide View Interactive On Monday auto makers reported steep declines in U S car and light truck sales for October with General Motors Corp reporting a 45 drop compared with the number of vehicles sold a year ago Ford Motor Co was down 30 and even onc　e mighty Toyota Motor Corp was off by 23 A senior GM executive said the company s results when adjusted for population changes represented the worst month in the post World War II era The auto industry s woes contributed to another drop in overall factory output with the Institute for Supply Management reporting its manufacturing activity index fell to a 26 year low in October Meanwhile troubled electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc said it was closing one　 fifth of its stores We re dealing with a situation that could develop into another Great Depression if not handled properly says Daniel DiMicco chief executive of Charlotte N C based steelmaker Nucor Corp who spent an hour in line on Friday waiting to cast an early vote Few economists predict the world is in for a repeat of the 1930s But the deepening problems rising joblessness and home foreclosures falling consumer spending and tight credit are prompting calls from businesses and Congress for quick action by the next president to clarify and begin working on his economic agenda Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd D Conn says the president elect should start by picking his Treasury secretary and economic team within days With Congress planning a session this month to push through a second economic stimulus package and discuss remaking the nation s financial system lawmakers will look for direction from the future president Mr Dodd said he will bring the next White House team into the regulatory talks Associated Press Getty Images CLOSING ARGUMENTS Sen John McCain left and rival Sen Barack Obama campaigned in Florida Monday as the economic outlook worsened just before the election Twenty seven electoral votes are at stake in the state Both campaigns declined to comment on any specific post election plans However Democratic Sen Barack Obama would likely come under pressure to assure investors that he won t increase income taxes on the wealthy during a recession as he hinted during the campaign or boost capital gains taxes during a market slump For Republican Sen John McCain one　 challenge would be explaining how he d work with a Democratic Congress after a bitter presidential battle The central issue now says McCain economic adviser Douglas Holtz Eakin is the reality that so many Americans believe that the institutions they rely on banks Wall Street Washington have failed them Those failures are the source of the lack of confidence Three economic challenges are apt to dominate the early days of the new presidency mending the economy reshaping the battered financial industry and crafting a policy for China America s biggest creditor and an economic rival The slumping economy is the top issue Many economists forecast that the U S will fall into its deepest recession since the early 1980s with some predicting unemployment above 8 by 2010 up from 6 1 today Former Reagan economist Martin Feldstein a McCain adviser recently endorsed a stimulus plan of as much as $300 billion Sen Charles Schumer the New York Democrat who is chairman of the Joint Economic Committee says an Obama win would mean the Democratic Congress will take up a small stimulus package in a lame duck session soon and a bigger one　 in January after inauguration Even if Sen McCain were to win Sen Schumer says expected Democratic gains in Congress will help the party leadership push through a package in November The last stimulus package of $168 billion including about $105 billion in rebate checks didn t do much to help The money boosted spending in the second quarter of 2008 but not beyond as the pain of $4 a gallon gasoline offset the extra cash consumers received from the government Now stimulus advocates mainly Democrats are focusing on infrastructure projects extension of unemployment insurance benefits and increases in food stamp payments State and local governments would also be targeted Twenty seven states have announced budget shortfalls for fiscal year 2009 which began in July totaling $26 billion according to Moody s Economy com an economic consulting firm Constituents are sure to weigh in with lawmakers Kokosing Construction Co in Frederickton Ohio laid off 300 of its 3 000 workers in the past year and may delay the purchase of $35 million in new equipment If Congress pays for several new dams and other projects that have been held up for lack of funding Kokosing s chief executive Brian Burgett says he could rehire many of his former employees Roughly 3 000 infrastructure projects are ready to go according to a survey by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials meaning that they could be put out to bid immediately A large stimulus package wouldn t forestall a recession though it could accelerate a recovery Moody s Economy Com analyzed the effect of a $300 billion stimulus program tilted heavily toward spending The unemployment rate in a post stimulus economy would hit 7 7 in 2010 the firm estimates compared with 8 9 without any stimulus help But a stimulus plan has drawbacks One　 is the possibility that the spending becomes permanent adding to the mounting U S debt and undermining U S finances as baby boomers begin to retire and government outlays for them rise Deeper debt also means heavier borrowing The Treasury is expected to sell about $2 trillion in debt next year about twice last year s record Goldman Sachs estimates largely because of government borrowing to prop up financial institutions While long term Treasury rates have so far have remained low at around 4 heavier borrowing could drive up general interest rates and cancel all the stimulus says Robert Litan a former Clinton administration budget official who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution a liberal leaning Washington D C think tank Another big challenge to face the president elect is deciding how big a role the government should play in the economy including picking winners and losers among companies competing for federal dollars and sharpening financial regulation Bush Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is preparing rooms at the Treasury for a transition team to assure smooth coordination Many decisions being made now will bind the next administration especially how to spend the $700 billion rescue budget While the presidential candidates talked generally about financial regulation during the campaign they didn t propose specific solutions Some lawmakers want to require more lending from banks in which the U S invested But twisting arms could be counterproductive If you bang on them to make loans they don t want to make they could lend to people who aren t qualified says Mr Litan That s how we got into this problem Sen Schumer warns hedge funds and other largely unregulated private investment firms that they too will soon face federal oversight and rules requiring them to disclose their operations even though heavily regulated banks that loaded up on risky securities have been at the heart of the financial crisis Richard Baker president of the Managed Funds Association a hedge fund trade group says that it would be difficult to meet disclosure rules because markets move so quickly that by the time information is made public it may not be relevant A big fight is sure to arise over saving firms considered too big to fail meaning that their demise could lead to a broader economic collapse The Bush administration and the Fed used that rationale to save investment bank Bear Stearns Cos mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and insurer American International Group Inc Indeed the one　 time the government let a major investment firm fail Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc credit markets around the world froze Neither Sen Obama nor Sen McCain has said in detail how he would address this issue As a nation we need to figure out who s a toobtof says Bob Atwell the chief executive of Nicolet National Bank in Green Bay Wis using his acronym for too big to fail Those firms need to be clearly defined he says and then taxed and regulated separately so they pay for what amounts to federal insurance Otherwise they would provide unfair competition for banks like Nicolet with $600 million in assets making them so small the government would be unlikely to bail them out if they fell into trouble But clarity might actually worsen the problem some economists argue because big firms would remake themselves to fit into the must be saved category The protected firms would have an incentive to take extra risks It would be like playing with Uncle Sam s credit card says Peter Wallison an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute Another battle will focus on who should be responsible for looking at the soundness of the system as a whole A plan by Treasury Secretary Paulson would give that role to the Federal Reserve Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach would amend the Fed s charter to add financial stability to its mission of promoting full employment and price stability so the Fed would focus more on identifying asset bubbles and deflating them gently before they burst A third challenge is trade with China an issue over which Sen McCain and Sen Obama have sharply disagreed Sen McCain is an avid free trader Sen Obama argues that trade

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